Premier Steven Miles is on track for a wipeout at next month’s Queensland state election, as the Liberal-National opposition opens a 12-point two-party-preferred lead, according to a new poll.
The latest Australian Financial Review-Freshwater Strategy survey shows Labor’s primary support has collapsed 10 points to 30 per cent since its third successive election victory in 2020 as Queenslanders struggle with cost-of-living and housing pressures, along with widespread fury over the handling of crime.
The opposition’s primary vote lifted seven percentage points to 43 per cent over the same period, and it now leads the government 56-44 on a two-party-preferred basis. This puts the LNP well within reach of securing the 12 additional seats needed to form a majority in the 93-member unicameral parliament.
The poll of 1062 Queensland voters was taken from Thursday to Sunday with the election campaign officially kicking off this week.
Federal Labor, which must go to the polls by May next year, badly needs to win seats in Queensland to avoid a minority government. It is hoping voters vent against the state Labor government on October 26, then are more kindly disposed to the party come the federal election.
However, the poll shows Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is more unpopular than Mr Miles in Queensland. Albanese’s net approval rating, which is his approval minus disapproval ratings, is minus 17 – compared to minus 5 for Mr Miles and zero for federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton. Queensland’s LNP leader David Crisafulli is on plus 15.
The results show Mr Miles has failed to win voters over after ascending to the premiership following Annastacia Palaszczuk’s resignation in December. He trails Mr Crisafulli 46-38 as preferred premier.
Mr Crisafulli has been dogged by persistent criticism of his small target strategy, with Labor bemoaning his lack of policy detail and former LNP premier Campbell Newman publicly urging his former cabinet minister to take a bold position on major issues.
The opposition leader has shrugged this off, however, and is now poised to deliver the LNP just its third state election victory in Queensland since 1989 after hammering the government on key issues – crime, housing, cost of living, and health.
Cost of living is the most important issue in Queensland, according to 68 per cent of respondents, but this figure is less than the 74 per cent recorded nationally in a recent Freshwater poll.
Housing and crime were virtually equal second as the most important issues in Queensland at 56 and 55 per cent respectively, compared with crime ranked fifth nationally at 24 per cent.
In this crucial area that has dominated the state campaign so far, 49 per cent of respondents said crime would be better managed by a Crisafulli-led government compared to 22 per cent for Mr Miles.
The prevalence of crime in the campaign is denounced by some as hysterical electioneering – but 44 per cent of respondents said they had personally been a victim of crime in the last 12 months or know someone who has. A clear majority, 57 per cent, also said they had changed their home or their behaviour in the last year to be more secure against crime.
Source: AFR
The latest Queensland Freshwater poll aligns with findings from RedBridge and Newspoll, signaling significant loses forLabor, especially outside Brisbane. It could worsen at the next federal election, as Albanese polls even lower than Steven Miles in this survey.
Today, Newspoll released a three-month aggregate analysis highlighting federal Labor’s declining position in NSW and Victoria, particularly losing support among parents and diverse communities.