Construction works on the China – Kyrgyzstan – Uzbekistan line are supposed to start this month. For that purpose, the joint venture of the three countries started operations on 29 September, which means that finally the ambitious project can go ahead.
The rail line is an incredibly important infrastructure project for the region. No one less than Kyrgyzstan’s Prime Minister took part in the opening of the joint venture in capital city Bishkek: “We consider this project to be highly important and call it the construction of the century. It will elevate economic interaction between China and Central Asia to a qualitatively new level”, he commented.
It remains a bit unclear how much the approximately 450-kilometre long rail line is going to cost. Most detailed accounts of the project talk about 4,7 billion dollars, whereas other mention figures up to 8 billion. Both are rather large sums of money for the countries in the region, save China. In 2022, the Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan predicted that the country would make 200 million dollars from the line on an annual basis, and that the line would pay itself back eventually.
Kyrgyzstan willing to pay a lot
Despite that prediction, doubts remain about the profitability of the route. It would have to compete with already existing rail infrastructure in Kazakhstan, which goes through much more forgiving terrain. It is unclear how the CKU line can hope to be more attractive to transit traffic. To pay itself back, it will need to have relatively high track access charges, while its capacity will likely be lower than other lines in the region.
Nevertheless, it is mostly Kyrgyzstan that is willing to pay a high price to be connected up to global infrastructure networks and mitigate its landlocked status. The Kyrgyzstan-based joint venture is taking a 2,33 billion dollar loan from China, which the Central Asian country insists will not have an impact on its already high foreign debt, a sensitive topic in the country.