Donald Trump is inaugurated indoors today, to avoid the deep cold of a Washington winter. Keeping the Capitol warm might well mean economic and environmental policy is up for change. That could have an impact on railroad operations in North America, by sparking a resurgence in a traditional commodity.
The Association of American Railroads, which monitors operational performance, has stated concern with an underlying metric in bulk cargo deliveries. Specifically, a decline in coal traffic is skewing their figures. Could today’s new president and his administration change all that?
A three-decade low for industrial products
The AAR takes a holistic view of the railroad industry in the US. It closely relates railroad health to the overall economy. The US Federal Reserve says manufacturing output has been slowly falling for two and half years. However, the AAR noted that, excluding coal, US railroad bulk carloads are on an eleventh consecutive year-on-year gain, even though broader economic indicators are not as optimistic.
A significant fall in coal volume has skewed US rail figures. A policy switch to a mineral-based economy (“drill baby drill” as President-elect Trump has prosaically put it) could spark a radical revival. In 2024, carloads of industrial products – reported in detail in our sister platform WorldCargo News – were down 0.9% from 2023. “In our records that begin in 1988, only 2020 had fewer total rail carloads (10.88 million) than 2024 (11.34 million),” says the AAR.
Coal is still vital to railroad figures
President Trump has previously stated his intention to champion domestic oil extraction, which is often transported by pipeline. However, Trump has previously expressed support for coal mining, which could help reverse a rail freight decline. The AAR quantified that with an outlier statistic covering the decline of coal. A loss of 460,420 carloads of coal in 2024 more than accounted for the total decline. “Carloads of coal in 2024 were down 13.6% from 2023 and, at 2.94 million, were the lowest in our records,” said the AAR. Even with the big decline in 2024, coal still accounted for 25.9% of total carloads. That’s far more than any other carload commodity.
It isn’t clear if America is experiencing a mirror of the ‘coal collapse’ that British rail freight operators have been forced to confront. However, this may be a long-term decline. If the US economy follows the net-zero path pursued elsewhere, coal demand will remain in decline. Nevertheless, with the incoming administration of President Trump, economic and environmental policy may be many things, except predictable.
Grains and gas make progress
Of the 20 carload categories that the AAR tracks, 12 had higher volumes in 2024 than in 2023, notably grain and chemicals. Grain carloads totalled 1.07 million in 2024, up 8.5% over 2023 but otherwise the fewest since 2019. Grain carloads were up each month in 2024 except January. The AAR believes the 2024 increase was due primarily to higher grain exports.
US rail carloads of chemicals totalled 1.69 million in 2024, up 4.1% over 2023 and the most ever for a year. “Year-over-year carloads of chemicals have grown each month since September 2023,” explained the AAR. “[This is] due in part to low natural gas prices which are boosting US chemical producers that use gas as a feedstock or energy source.”
Road cars benefit railcar figures
Whatever may change after the inauguration of the new president, one thing will remain immutable. America remains wed to the car, and that has implications for the railroad industry. Carloads of petroleum products in 2024 were the most since 2019, in part due to higher crude oil shipments, although pipeline remains the method of choice for transporting crude oil in North America, with at least one new line about to come onstream.
The manufacturing slowdown did negatively impact rail deliveries of steel products. In 2024, they were the lowest since 2020. Nevertheless, US rail carloads of motor vehicles rose 1.2% in 2024 over 2023. The year did finish on a negative note. Cars delivered by rail in 2024 declined in November and December, although there’s no suggestion that America has reached “peak car”. It may however have already passed peak coal, and that’s not something that’s on the presidential agenda. Well, not at the moment, baby.