The average number of trains crossing the Polish – Belarusian border on a daily basis at Malaszewicze has dropped down to 21. That is only one daily train more than in 2022, when traffic on the route was severely reduced due to the war in Ukraine.
A downward trend has been ongoing for a while already. In November 2024, there were still 27 trains crossing the border on a daily basis. In December, that number had decreased to 23. As of January 2025, it is back down to 21. Before the start of the war in Ukraine, 50 trains were passing the border on average per day.
One of the factors likely contributing to the drop is Russia’s new measure against dual-use transit goods. Since October 2024, Russia has been on the hunt for dual-use civilian-military goods that are transiting the country on the way to Europe. As a result, at least more than one thousand containers have been blocked and sent back. Whereas the current scale of the issue is unclear, Chinese companies have expressed fear that European customers would start looking for alternative routes.
A strict Poland
At the same time, Poland has been stricter in enforcing sanctions against Russia. Hundreds of Kazakh LPG tanker wagons got stuck at the Belarusian – Polish border, because Poland demanded more proof of their Kazakh origin. Warsaw feared that the LPG might in reality have been produced in Russia rather than in Kazakhstan.