Russia is planning to invest record-breaking amounts in its Far East railway infrastructure. Unprecedented investments in the East in the coming years might be interpreted as a break with the past and a move away from the West. However, it is unlikely that these investments signal a significant change in policy.
The new investments will be targeted at expanding the throughput capacity of the existing Trans-Siberian Railway (Transsib) and the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM), otherwise known as the ‘Eastern Polygon’. Russian publication Vedomosti writes that Western sanctions have forced Russia to redirect its exports to the East. As a result, every five to eight minutes, a cargo train passes the routes. The railway network has become overloaded and is in need of upgrades.
To this end, Russia has a planned expenditure of 400 billion rubles for the Eastern Polygon routes in 2024. This number stands in stark contrast to investments from previous years, which amounted to 250 billion and 138 billion rubles in 2023 and 2022, respectively. Maintenance and upgrade works are currently ongoing and are valued at 866 billion rubles. These large-scale investments aim to grow the throughput capacity of Transsib and BAM to 180 million tonnes by 2025 and 255 million tonnes by 2030.
Not a new project
The ongoing investments are part of a long-term expansion strategy devised by Russia in the early 2010s. Between 2014 and 2018, 562 billion rubles were invested in the Eastern Polygon in order to grow the annual throughput capacity by 66 million tonnes. In 2014, throughput capacity amounted to 110 million tonnes per year, up from approximately 60 million tonnes in 2012.
By 2021, throughput capacity exceeded 120 million tonnes per year after nearly a decade of upgrade works. A further expansion of capacity up to 180 million tonnes annually was planned for 2024. Reports suggest that the capacity amounted to 158 million tonnes annually in 2022, 168 million tonnes in 2023 and currently sits at 173 million tonnes.
Plans for the future
In addition to its immediate goal of 180 million tonnes of throughput capacity, the Russian Railways announced new preliminary plans for the near future. According to Kommersant, the Transsib and BAM await three new stages of development by 2028, 2029 and 2031. These new plans are also accompanied by large planned expenditures running into the hundreds of billions of rubles. The first and third stages, in particular, are said to have planned expenditures of more than 450 billion rubles. The stated goal of these plans is to reach a combined throughput capacity of 255 million tonnes annually of the Transsib and BAM lines by 2032.
Following the same path
The 2024 investment spike of 400 billion rubles does not seem to indicate a marked change from prior policy. The expansion of the Eastern Polygon has been ongoing since at least 2012, and the 2025 target of a capacity of 180 million tonnes was formulated in 2014. Capacity growth was reportedly relatively low between 2014 and 2021 after an initial spur following 2012 but has since then taken up pace.
The 400 billion rubles allocated for rail investments will prove to be a necessity. The Eastern Polygon is already functioning at its maximum capacity. What is more, the reorientation of Russian exports eastward after the implementation of Western sanctions has aggravated capacity issues. Additionally, congestion problems persist on the Russia-China border, and Russia may have to deal with a continuation of long-term labour shortages due to war mobilizations.
While capacity issues have become increasingly pressing due to sanctions, the currently planned investments are an extension of long-standing Russian ambitions in its Far East region. While a new target of 255 million tonnes of annual throughput capacity was identified in 2022, it is in line with the prior trajectory of infrastructure development in Russia’s challenging Far East.