Countries in Afghanistan’s vicinity have grown an interest in developing its rail infrastructure. More and more projects are being launched, or are at the very least being considered, that would elevate the country to an international “rail bridge” to the Indian Ocean. What are these projects, and what motivates these countries?
As the desert dust is settling down after the Taliban’s takeover in Afghanistan, countries are once again looking to do business. While the country is mountainous, has a weak economy and damaged infrastructure due to the two-decades long war, Afghanistan is also strategically located at the crossroads of various regions. The latter attracts the interest of the country’s neighbours.
To its north, landlocked Central Asian countries see opportunities for rail routes towards the Indian Ocean, a potentially lucrative economic investment. Meanwhile, Afghanistan is widely perceived to be a fragile state and a potential threat to the region. A country like Kazakhstan, writes The Diplomat, sees economic cooperation as a way to strengthen ties and bolster regional stability and security. Uzbekistan also maintains that talking to its southern neighbour is the best way forward.
Rail projects
A multitude of rail projects are now in development that reflect this renewed interest in Afghanistan. For example, Uzbekistan seeks to build a direct rail connection to Pakistan traversing the Afghan mountains, which it originally proposed in 2018. The line would be an extension of a 75-kilometre railway already under construction from the Uzbek border to Mazar-e-Sharif in northern Afghanistan.
Taliban representatives visited the Uzbek capital of Tashkent in February this year, where they signed a memorandum of understanding with the host country. The parties agreed on a feasibility study for the so-called Trans-Afghan railway between Uzbekistan and Pakistan. A tangible step towards its realisation.
Kazakh-Uzbek cooperation
A month later, in March of this year, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan agreed to establish a joint venture to develop the Trans-Afghan railway. The former signalled its readiness to provide domestically produced railway construction materials as well as rolling stock for the operation of the route.
However, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan do not always see eye to eye on Afghanistan logistics. In particular, Kazakhstan uses a rail route to Afghanistan that bypasses Uzbekistan through Turkmenistan, because Uzbekistan imposes too high fees on transiting Kazakh grain. This is costly to the Kazakhs, for whom Afghanistan is the third largest grain buyer. Consequently, Kazakhstan is now also looking to build a grain terminal on the Turkmen-Afghan border.
Across the ocean
Russia and Belarus have now also joined the growing group of countries interested in a trans-Afghanistan line. For these two, such a line could enhance opportunities to cope with Western sanctions, much like the similar International North-South Transport Corridor. In late April, the countries joined an international high-level meeting on the development of a Belarus-Pakistan corridor, with a connection to the Indian Ocean in mind.
On the other side of the Persian Gulf, Qatar and the UAE are also keen on involvement. The two will partake in consultations on the Uzbekistan-Pakistan line, because it allows for a faster overseas connection with Central Asia. The Hindustan Times reports that Qatar is even providing Uzbekistan with much-needed funding to bring the Trans-Afghan railway to fruition.
Try-outs for the ocean-crossing route have now also started in late April. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan have officially launched a pilot for the Trans-Afghan route, although not yet entirely via rail, with a final overseas connection to Jebel Ali Port in the UAE. The pilot suggests that the countries are serious about making the Trans-Afghan route a reality. If successful, it could reduce travelling times tenfold and make transport more financially viable.
Is it realistic?
While nearly a dozen countries take an interest in the route and a pilot has been launched, questions about its implementation remain. The relatively small Central Asian economies may not be able to afford an expensive railway across mountainous Afghanistan, although oil-rich Qatar has reportedly stepped in with funding. Moreover, it is unclear if the Taliban could guarantee safe travelling along the route in a fragile security environment. Lastly, some countries could be wary of losing international reputation for cooperating with an internationally recognised terrorist organisation.
However, other national interests might take precedence. For example, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan would like to diversify their transportation routes, bring down travelling times and costs, and bet on improving regional stability through economic cooperation with Afghanistan. Moreover, Belarus and Russia want to find alternative transportation routes out of sight of Western monitoring.
Lastly, the Taliban itself is keen on reducing its international isolation. International interest in Afghan rail provides an opportunity to improve its economic position by becoming a transit hub, not only for such things as Kazakh grain, but also for energy products flowing to South Asia. The Taliban have already stated they want to build an energy hub to that end. However, whether or not this international interest will suffice for an extended Afghan rail network remains to be seen.
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