Secret government modelling showing a paltry number of passengers expected to step aboard the $200bn Suburban Rail Loop was handed to Premier Jacinta Allan four years ago.
The internal analysis, obtained by the Sunday Herald Sun, compares the 90km loop’s patronage to existing lines where passenger numbers are up to 11 times higher.
Labor ministers say the data was not shared with Cabinet, which was kept in the dark during key decision-making processes for the SRL, but that it further shows the risk of providing “platinum treatment” to southeastern suburbs at the expense of booming growth corridors.
The leaked analysis shows that by mid-century – when Melbourne houses eight million people – there would be only 24,000 trips a day between the first two SRL stations, Cheltenham and Clayton, in Melbourne’s southeast.
Premier Jacinta Allan inspects early works of the SRL in Clayton in 2022. Picture: Wayne Taylor
It shows that by the same year, trains running between Sunshine and Footscray in Melbourne’s booming west, would be crammed with a whopping 270,000 passengers.
The analysis by Rail Projects Victoria used the public sector’s integrated transport model, based on public sector population forecasts, and is likely to reignite debate about suburban infrastructure priorities across Melbourne.
It predicts rail network passenger numbers based on the full 90km loop being in operation between Cheltenham and Werribee, but does not factor in rezoning around SRL stations currently being finalised that will pave the way for suburban skyscrapers.
One Labor minister said the data was not shared with other MPs at the time and that there was little information provided about modelling during decision-making.
“This is exactly why they didn’t bring the SRL to the general Cabinet … at the decision-making point,” they said.
“They knew western suburbs and northern suburbs MPs would be angry.”
Picture: Sarah Matray
Another said there was a growing political risk about people in Melbourne’s north and west feeling “left out” while other parts of the city with decent transport links got “platinum treatment”.
The government rejected the leaked public sector modelling and said a business case – published a year after the leaked brief was sent to Ms Allan when she was transport infrastructure minister – showed two-way passenger demand between Cheltenham and Clayton would be 51,000 people by 2056.
The business case says the years after the $34.5bn SRL East opens in 2035, there would be 7900 people boarding trains at Cheltenham each day, and 15,000 at Clayton.
A Victorian Parliamentary Budget Office report released last year estimates building and maintaining just the first two sections of the SRL, a 60km route between Cheltenham and Melbourne Airport, would cost about $134bn over the next five decades.
Experts say the total cost of the full 90km loop to Werribee would likely top $200bn, but the Government has refused to put a figure on the plan.
While the government spruiks the SRL as an alternative route to the airport, the modelling shows fewer than 500 people a day would take the 60km journey between Clayton and Tullamarine.
There was no data included for expected airport patronage from Cheltenham.
Passenger numbers rise to about 4500 people expected to use the SRL to the airport from Bundoora or Reservoir in Melbourne’s northern suburbs.
Herald Sun Report
Even if that part of the numbers is true by the time it is built the network will carry many more than expected with the growth of Melbourne.